Simple Recap of 2024–2025 Marin Housing Market and Looking Ahead

Over the last two years, the Marin County real estate market — from San Anselmo and Fairfax to Mill Valley, Corte Madera, Ross, and Tiburon — has been shaped by one consistent theme: what I call the “2021–2022 hangover.”

Buyers and sellers alike have been adjusting expectations after one of the most aggressive housing markets in recent history. Instead of rapid acceleration, 2024 and 2025 felt more like a reset period — a time where psychology influenced activity just as much as pricing or interest rates.

Marin County Real Estate in 2024–2025: Waiting for the Old Market to Return

Many buyers spent the past two years hoping for the return of ultra-low mortgage rates. Conversations across Marin neighborhoods showed a common mindset: wait for rates to drop before jumping in.

At the same time, affluent Marin County sellers often held onto pricing expectations shaped during the peak years. Rather than reduce price, some chose to rent their homes, move back in, or temporarily withdraw from the market altogether.

The result? A market where both sides had motivation — but less urgency.

Slower Pace, Selective Competition Across Marin

This dynamic led to a noticeably slower rhythm across Marin County’s residential market. Buyers frequently adopted a “grass is greener” approach, waiting for ideal timing or perfect conditions. Sellers, meanwhile, showed patience, particularly in higher price points.

Yet one trend remained consistent:
The best homes still performed extremely well.

Turn-key properties in desirable locations — whether close to downtown Mill Valley, central San Anselmo, or waterfront Tiburon — continued to attract strong interest and multiple offers. The difference from prior years was that selling significantly over asking price was no longer guaranteed.

Inventory remained tight as well. Many homeowners stayed put, locked into historically low interest rates. Even families ready for larger homes often chose financial stability over moving, which further restricted available supply.

2026 Marin Housing Market Forecast: Signs of a Shift

Looking ahead to 2026, early conversations within the Marin real estate community suggest a potential change in market behavior.

Buyers are increasingly recognizing that 3% mortgage rates may not return anytime soon. Agents and mortgage professionals across Marin County are reporting growing pent-up demand — buyers who paused their search now preparing to re-enter the market.

Sellers also appear to be adjusting expectations. Those planning to list this year may come to market with more realistic pricing strategies, which could create a more balanced environment and lead to quicker, more competitive transactions.

Local data hasn’t fully reflected this shift yet, but the upcoming spring season will be a strong indicator of whether Marin County is entering a new phase.

Advice for Marin County Buyers in 2026

With the possibility of increased competition, my biggest advice for buyers is simple: start your search early.

Even if your timeline is months away, begin touring homes, learning pricing patterns, and understanding how different Marin micro-markets behave — from Sleepy Hollow to Greenbrae to West Marin.

The buyers who succeed are typically the ones who feel confident making decisions when the right property appears. That confidence comes from preparation and familiarity with the marketplace, not from waiting for perfect timing.

Advice for Marin County Sellers

For sellers, it’s important to recognize that the 2021–2022 market was an exception — not the rule.

If your goal is to sell within the next two years, it’s wise to seek guidance from a local real estate professional who can offer honest insight on timing, preparation, and pricing strategy specific to your neighborhood and property type.

At the same time, Marin County real estate has historically proven to be a strong long-term investment. If selling doesn’t align with your financial goals — and if renting the property makes sense — holding onto the asset may continue to be a valuable strategy. Many homeowners across Marin chose exactly that path over the past two years.

Final Thoughts on the Marin County Housing Market

The past two years have been less about dramatic swings and more about recalibration. As buyers and sellers move beyond the expectations of 2021 and 2022, the Marin County real estate market may be entering a more balanced and decisive phase.

If the upcoming spring season reflects the growing pent-up demand many professionals are seeing, 2026 could mark a meaningful shift toward renewed momentum across Marin’s housing market.